TMGM外汇平台：澳元GDP疲软为何兑美元仍走强？通胀支撑是关键

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) shows a positive trend against the US dollar (USD) despite weak GDP growth data for Q3 from the Australian Bureau of Statistics [1] Economic Data Summary - Q3 GDP growth rate was 0.4%, down from 0.6% in Q2; annual GDP growth slowed from 1.8% to 2.1%, both below market expectations, leading to a brief sell-off of the AUD during Asian trading hours [1] - October's consumer price index (CPI) rose to 3.8% year-on-year, up from 3.5% in the previous month; adjusted average CPI increased from 3.2% to 3.3%, remaining above the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target range of 2%-3% [2] Central Bank and Inflation Insights - RBA Governor Michele Bullock indicated that the central bank is closely evaluating recent inflation data to assess the sustainability of price pressures, which could impact future monetary policy [2] - The statement reduced market expectations for further policy easing in the short term, providing support for the AUD [2] External Environment Impact - China's services PMI slightly decreased from 52.6 in October to 52.1 in November but remained above the expected 52.0, showing limited reaction from the AUD [3] - The USD index remains at a relatively low level, influenced by market expectations of a dovish policy from the Federal Reserve, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December [3][4] Technical Analysis - The AUD/USD recently broke through a descending trendline resistance since September and is above the 100-day simple moving average, indicating positive momentum without entering overbought territory [5] - Key resistance levels are identified at 0.6535-0.6530; a breakthrough could lead to further gains towards 0.6600 and potentially challenge the yearly high around 0.6700 [7] - Important support is at the psychological level of 0.6500; a drop below this could lead to further declines towards the 200-day moving average around 0.6465 and the November low of 0.6420 [7]