美元霸权要结束了？

Group 1 - The probability of Hassett becoming the next Federal Reserve Chairman has risen to 80%, indicating a potential fundamental shift in the Fed's approach from an independent technical institution focused on inflation to a politically influenced policy tool [1] - Hassett is known for his "aggressive rate cuts," and if he assumes leadership, the market may need to reprice a new Fed that is extremely dovish and may tolerate higher inflation, which could erode the dollar's interest rate advantage [2] - The Bank of Japan has unexpectedly signaled a strong likelihood of interest rate hikes, with an 80% probability of a December increase, which could lead to significant capital returning to Japan, given its status as the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt at approximately $1.2 trillion [3] Group 2 - The divergence in interest rates between Japan's potential hikes and U.S. rate cuts creates a "scissors gap" that is unfavorable for the dollar [4] - Concerns are growing among global investors regarding U.S. Treasuries, traditionally viewed as a safe haven, as they failed to hedge against stock market declines during high inflation in 2022, raising fears that the belief in the Fed as an inflation fighter may be replaced by a growth-centric philosophy under Hassett [5] - The potential decoupling of inflation expectations could erode the intrinsic value of U.S. Treasuries, threatening their status as the king of collateral, which supports over $60 trillion in financial derivatives [5] Group 3 - Smart money is already taking action, with gold prices nearing historical highs and central bank gold purchases remaining strong, while positions in the yen have significantly increased, indicating a shift towards traditional safe-haven assets amid uncertainties in the dollar system [6] - Historical parallels are drawn to the 1960s-70s when the Fed maintained low rates under political pressure, failing to curb inflation expectations, which ultimately led to severe inflation consequences [7] - The ongoing global discussion surrounding Hassett's potential leadership serves as a comprehensive stress test of the dollar's hegemonic system, questioning the resilience of U.S. institutions, policy credibility, and global leadership, as the foundational pillars of Fed independence, Treasury security, and dollar stability face scrutiny [8]