专访国研中心刘云中：未来人口将向城市群、都市圈和中心城市集中

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic importance of optimizing regional economic layout and promoting coordinated regional development as a key task in China's 14th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the need to narrow the economic gap between northern and southern regions [1][6]. Group 1: Regional Development Strategies - The 14th Five-Year Plan highlights the need to leverage the "four strategic" effects to promote balanced development between northern and southern regions, marking a significant shift in policy focus [1][3]. - The integration of regional coordination strategies, major regional strategies, functional area strategies, and new urbanization strategies aims to create a high-quality regional economic layout and spatial system [3][5]. - The article emphasizes the importance of a multi-dimensional approach to implement these strategies effectively, involving coordination among various government departments and utilizing advanced technologies for spatial planning [3][10]. Group 2: Key Areas for Development - The western region requires a focus on stability and development, particularly in ethnic and border areas, while promoting the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle as a growth engine [4][5]. - The northeastern region has shown signs of revitalization but still faces structural pressures in population and industry, necessitating new momentum from evolving international dynamics [5][6]. - The central region is positioned as a crucial hub for connecting the east and west, with a strategic focus on logistics and infrastructure development to enhance its economic role [5][6]. Group 3: Population Mobility and Labor Flow - The article notes that while major cities like Beijing and Shanghai may not see continued population growth, there will be a trend of population concentration towards urban clusters and central cities [2][8]. - To address regional disparities, enhancing education and training to improve labor mobility and reducing barriers to movement are identified as critical pathways [2][9]. - The need for policies that prioritize comprehensive development in health, education, and employment is emphasized to facilitate population movement and regional coordination [9][10]. Group 4: Addressing Regional Disparities - The article identifies income levels and public service availability as key indicators of regional disparities, with fiscal transfers being a vital policy tool to bridge these gaps [8][9]. - The importance of creating a unified national market and promoting the free flow of factors, especially labor, is highlighted as essential for reducing regional income disparities [7][8]. - The article suggests that the government should enhance mechanisms for regional planning and collaboration to avoid pollution transfer and low-level repeated construction in the context of industrial cooperation [10][11].