特朗普“眼中钉”暂时拔不掉了？德银：鲍威尔卸任美联储主席后或留任理事

Core Viewpoint - The focus of the market has shifted back to the Federal Reserve following President Trump's announcement regarding the successor to Chairman Powell, with a decision expected early next year [1]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership - President Trump has indicated he has identified a successor for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, with an announcement planned for early next year [1]. - Deutsche Bank noted that Powell could choose to remain on the board after his term as chairman ends in May 2026, despite the common belief that he would leave the Fed entirely [1]. - Historically, only two out of fifteen past Federal Reserve chairmen have chosen to remain on the board after their chairmanship, providing a significant context for Powell's potential decision [1]. Group 2: Historical Precedents - The first chairman to remain on the board after his term was Charles Hamlin, who served from 1914 and stayed for twenty years post-chairmanship [2]. - The second notable precedent is Marriner Eccles, who remained on the board after his chairmanship ended in 1948, partly due to his respect in the market and the president's inability to force him out [2]. Group 3: Future Implications for Powell - Powell may face a similar situation in 2026, where he could choose to stay on the board to protect the Fed's independence if the political environment threatens its monetary policy [3]. - The decision on whether Powell will remain on the board will largely depend on the nominee for the next Federal Reserve chairman [3]. - There is significant attention from Wall Street regarding whether Powell will completely exit the Federal Reserve after his term ends, with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin suggesting that Powell should resign from the board to avoid market confusion [3].