北约计划对俄率先开战，美国缺席北约会议透露信号，普京这次难了

Group 1 - NATO's military preparations have escalated significantly, with a detailed 1200-page operational plan aimed at deploying 800,000 troops, 30,000 main battle tanks, and 120,000 armored vehicles to Eastern Europe within a month [4][23]. - The absence of U.S. Secretary of State Rubio at the NATO foreign ministers' meeting has raised concerns, as it is a rare occurrence that signals a potential strategic shift [2][11]. - NATO is transitioning from deterrence to actual military deployment, with plans for a joint military exercise involving over 50,000 troops scheduled for September 2025 [6][23]. Group 2 - The NATO Military Committee Chairman has suggested a more aggressive strategy against Russia, including the possibility of preemptive strikes, which has drawn strong criticism from Russia [6][16]. - The U.S. stance on NATO appears ambiguous, with Trump oscillating between supporting NATO and emphasizing European self-funding for defense, while also pushing for a peace plan with Ukraine [9][12]. - There is a growing divide within the EU regarding military spending, with Eastern European countries advocating for increased military capabilities, while Southern European nations express concerns over rising costs [25]. Group 3 - Russia faces significant challenges, including economic limitations and high military casualties, while still maintaining a substantial defense budget and nuclear capabilities [16][17]. - The ongoing military buildup and strategic discussions by NATO have led to a deteriorating trust between the two sides, contributing to a classic security dilemma in Eurasia [23][21]. - The geopolitical landscape is further complicated by Japan and South Korea strengthening ties with NATO, indicating a broader regional military alignment against perceived threats [19][18].