Seaport Global Maintains Sell on NVIDIA (NVDA), Citing TPU Competition and Heavy Customer Commitments

Core Viewpoint - NVIDIA Corporation is facing increasing competitive pressures and financial challenges, leading to a "Sell" rating from Seaport Global Securities with a price target of $140 [1]. Competitive Risks - The firm has identified competitive risks from Google's TPUs, which can outperform NVIDIA systems on various metrics [2][3]. - NVIDIA's reliance on financial arrangements, including $26 billion in cloud compute service agreements, may significantly impact gross margins, potentially reducing them by 400 basis points next year, equating to at least $0.30 per share [2]. Financial Commitments - NVIDIA has made substantial investments, spending $6 billion this year in private companies and committing an additional $17 billion, which includes $5 billion to Intel [3]. - The potential agreement with OpenAI, although not yet signed, could add another $100 billion to NVIDIA's commitments [3]. Working Capital Dynamics - There has been a significant increase in working capital this quarter, which may indicate strong demand but is also viewed as a strategy to manage working capital needs among its ODM customers [3]. Investment Outlook - While NVIDIA has potential as an investment, there are other AI stocks that may offer greater upside potential with less downside risk [4].