普京警告欧洲“别玩火”，和平计划变“提线木偶戏”

Core Points - The recent five-hour talks between Russian President Putin and U.S. special envoy Witkowski ended without a compromise on the Ukraine issue, with Putin accusing Europe of trying to shift blame for the stalled peace process [1][3] - Russia has claimed full control over key areas in the Donetsk region, including the city of Bakhmut (referred to as Red Army City), which is strategically significant for Ukraine's logistics [1][6][14] - The ongoing military actions by Russia contrast with its diplomatic stance, as it shows no urgency to negotiate while making territorial gains on the battlefield [5][6] Group 1: Russia's Strategy - Russia is adopting a "wait and see" approach in negotiations, with Foreign Minister Lavrov stating that there is no rush to pressure the U.S. on Ukraine [5] - The Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov has drawn a clear line, stating that no concessions will be made while military operations are ongoing [6] - Control of Bakhmut is seen as critical for further advances in the region, potentially opening pathways into Dnipropetrovsk [6] Group 2: Europe's Dilemma - Europe is caught in a strategic bind, facing increasing "hybrid attacks" from Russia while debating how to respond effectively [8] - There is a growing call within Europe for a more proactive stance against Russia, as highlighted by Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braze [8] - NATO is considering shifting from a passive defense to a more aggressive posture, particularly in cyberspace [8] Group 3: U.S. Role - The U.S. plays a complex role in the peace process, with its initial peace plan being perceived as biased towards Russia [10][11] - The modified plan proposed by Europe was rejected by Russia, indicating a lack of alignment on key issues [11] - Domestic political changes in the U.S. add uncertainty to its mediation role, as it seeks a balance between supporting Ukraine and negotiating with Russia [11] Group 4: Future Scenarios - Three potential future paths have been identified: U.S. pressure on Ukraine to accept the original plan, a long-term strategy of bargaining with Russia while applying political pressure on Ukraine, or new sanctions against Russia coupled with advanced military support for Ukraine [12] - Russia has made it clear that if Ukraine does not accept its conditions, it will continue to seize territory [12] - The evolving situation on the battlefield is likely to influence any future peace negotiations, as territorial realities change [12]