美联储12月降息概率已升至90%专家谈美联储12月降息概率

Core Viewpoint - The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points in December has risen to 89.2%, indicating a significant shift in market expectations regarding monetary policy [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision - As of December 3, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve has reached 89.2% according to CME data [1] - Bank of America previously predicted that the Federal Reserve would maintain interest rates during the December meeting [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - Market speculation about changes in Federal Reserve policy is driven by new motivations, primarily influenced by U.S. economic data, particularly employment figures [1] - Long-term trends should be monitored, as there are expectations of more aggressive fiscal expansion and economic support policies from the U.S. government, potentially under President Trump in 2026 [1] - The alignment of the Federal Reserve's actions with U.S. government policies is seen as a likely scenario, contributing to market predictions of continued accommodative monetary policy [1]