人工智能风险冲击下，Salesforce股价处于历史低位

Core Viewpoint - Salesforce's stock price has fallen to its historical lowest level, with investor concerns about artificial intelligence undermining the company's growth prospects [1][2] Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - Salesforce's stock has declined by 30% year-to-date, making it the second-largest decliner in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and among the top 25 decliners in the S&P 500 [1] - The company's market capitalization has dropped to its lowest level since its IPO in 2004, with a forward P/E ratio of less than 19, significantly below its 10-year average of 47 and the S&P 500 average of about 22 [2] - Despite predictions of double-digit revenue growth in the coming years, Wall Street remains skeptical about whether the upcoming earnings report will change the cautious market sentiment [1][2] Group 2: AI Concerns and Competitive Landscape - Concerns persist that products from native AI companies like OpenAI may weaken demand for Salesforce's services and its pricing power [2][3] - Salesforce has its own AI product, Agentforce, but investor confidence in its financial contribution remains low, raising doubts about the company's ability to thrive in the AI era [3] - The broader SaaS sector has also faced pressure, with a 12% decline in the sector tracked by Morgan Stanley in 2025 due to fears of AI disruption [3] Group 3: Future Projections and Analyst Opinions - Salesforce is projected to see an 11% net profit growth and an 8.8% revenue growth for the current fiscal year, with expectations of acceleration in these metrics over the next three fiscal years [4] - Some analysts believe current market fears are overblown, suggesting that the SaaS sector is undervalued by 30% to 40% relative to its fundamentals [4] - The average target price for Salesforce over the next 12 months is approximately $325, indicating a potential upside of nearly 40% from the current price of $235 [4] Group 4: Importance of Services and Market Complexity - The sentiment towards SaaS companies has become quite harsh, but some services are deemed "critical" for businesses, suggesting that Salesforce may be one of the companies worth monitoring [5][6] - The outlook for the sector remains complex, with companies needing time to demonstrate resilience against AI disruptions or to emerge as winners in the AI era [6]