Core Insights - Company reported a revenue growth of 11.9% year-on-year to 7.36 billion yuan for the fiscal year 2025, which is in line with expectations; adjusted EBITDA increased by 10.5% to 4.17 billion yuan, exceeding expectations due to better-than-expected cost control [1] - The number of full-time students increased by approximately 5% year-on-year to 282,000 as of August 31, 2025, but growth in student numbers for the 2025/26 academic year showed a slowdown with only a 0.2% increase [1] Financial Performance - The gross margin for the fiscal year 2025 was 53.3%, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year; adjusted EBITDA margin was 56.6%, down 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company recognized goodwill impairment totaling 1.706 billion yuan for three of its schools during the period [2] - Capital expenditures decreased by 45.2% year-on-year to 2.66 billion yuan, indicating a turning point in capital spending [2] - As of August 31, 2025, the company's interest-bearing debt ratio was approximately 26.0%, slightly down from 26.4% in the previous year, indicating a healthy level of debt [2] Future Outlook - The company has adjusted its revenue forecast for fiscal year 2026 down by 4% to 7.77 billion yuan and reduced the adjusted EBITDA forecast by 1% to 4.19 billion yuan; it has introduced a revenue forecast for fiscal year 2027 of 8.16 billion yuan and an adjusted EBITDA forecast of 4.42 billion yuan [2] - The target price has been lowered by 30% to 3.5 HKD, corresponding to 3.4 times the estimated adjusted EV/EBITDA for 2026 [2] - The company is currently trading at 2.8 times the estimated adjusted EV/EBITDA for 2026, indicating a potential upside of 22% [2]
中教控股(00839.HK)：内生价值深化 股息政策进入审慎周期