中俄天然气大战？普京要体面价格，中国坚守原则，这场博弈如何？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the geopolitical and energy dynamics between Russia and China, particularly focusing on the construction of the "Power of Siberia 2" gas pipeline, which aims to reshape energy exports and economic relations in the context of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][22]. Group 1: Energy Strategy and Market Dynamics - Following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia has lost approximately 70% of its energy export market, prompting a strategic pivot towards China as a new market for its natural gas [3][14]. - The "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline is expected to transport up to 50 billion cubic meters of gas annually, which is about one-third of Russia's previous exports to Europe [9][14]. - The project is not only an economic initiative but also a strategic lifeline for Russia, aiming to demonstrate its ability to adapt and reshape its export landscape despite Western sanctions [5][22]. Group 2: Technical and Logistical Challenges - The pipeline will span over 2,600 kilometers, starting from the Yamal Peninsula and passing through Mongolia before reaching northern China, facing significant technical and geographical challenges [9][10]. - The construction involves complex negotiations regarding route selection, environmental assessments, and investment sharing among the three countries involved [10][12]. Group 3: Pricing Negotiations and Economic Implications - Pricing has emerged as a central issue in negotiations, with Russia seeking a "decent" price that reflects its economic interests and national dignity, while China insists on market-driven pricing [7][18]. - Initial investment for the pipeline is projected to exceed $13 billion, with ongoing maintenance and transportation costs also being significant factors in the negotiations [16][18]. - The outcome of these pricing discussions will have profound implications for Russia's economic recovery in the Far East, China's energy security, and the overall energy landscape in Eurasia [20][23].