【兴证策略张启尧团队】历年岁末年初躁动行情如何演绎？

Core Viewpoint - The end of the year and the beginning of the new year serve as a significant window for market volatility, driven by a vacuum in fundamental data, upcoming important meetings, and expectations of policy changes, alongside historical trends of liquidity and risk appetite improvements [1][2]. Historical Trends - Since 2008, the A-share market has experienced various upward trends during the end of the year and the beginning of the new year, with different starting points and catalysts for these movements [2]. - The table outlines specific years, their start and end dates, reasons for the market movements, leading styles, and sectors that outperformed during these periods, indicating a pattern of cyclical behavior in the market [2]. Catalysts for Market Movements - Market movements can be categorized into three main types of catalysts: 1. Economic fundamentals improving, leading to a cyclical style dominance [3]. 2. Macro policies exceeding expectations or reversing, benefiting high-elasticity sectors [3]. 3. Risk disturbances easing and liquidity improving, favoring sectors with favorable trends [3]. Delayed Market Movements - Factors contributing to delayed market movements include tightening domestic and international policies, poor domestic fundamental expectations, and liquidity pressures [3].