白银狂飙103%，涨幅碾压黄金

Core Viewpoint - Silver has reached a historic high, with significant price increases driven by market demand and supply dynamics, making it the best-performing investment asset this year [1][4]. Price Movement - On December 3, silver prices hit a peak of $58.945 per ounce, marking a year-to-date increase of 103%, significantly outpacing gold's 60% rise [1][4]. - COMEX silver surpassed $59 per ounce, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw silver contracts rise to 13,866 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a 2.7% increase [1][4]. Economic Indicators - Market attention is focused on upcoming economic data, particularly the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, which is expected to show a slight increase in inflation [3]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is estimated at 89.2%, with a cumulative cut of 25 basis points by January having a probability of 66.6% [3][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver market is projected to face a structural supply deficit of approximately 9.5 million ounces by 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of supply shortages [4][5]. - Global silver supply is expected to remain stable at around 813 million ounces, with only a slight increase in recycling supply [4][5]. - Total global silver demand is anticipated to decline by about 4% to 1.12 billion ounces, with industrial demand decreasing by approximately 2% [5]. Future Outlook - The anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to bolster market sentiment towards silver, although the market is currently in an overbought condition [6]. - The silver-to-gold ratio has decreased to around 78, indicating potential for further correction towards historical averages [6]. - The largest silver ETF, SLV, reported a holding of 15,863.15 tons, reflecting an increase of 60.79 tons from the previous day, maintaining high levels of investment interest [6].