Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-03 12:57Core Insights - Traditional e-commerce is facing a "mid-life crisis" characterized by traffic saturation, ineffective promotions, and challenges in international expansion [1][3] Group 1: Traffic and User Behavior - The initial "traffic anxiety" in traditional e-commerce has escalated, with users now favoring platforms like Meituan for food delivery and Douyin for shopping, leading to a significant decline in attention towards traditional e-commerce sites [3][5] - Alibaba's e-commerce segment, which historically contributed around 60% of the group's revenue, is now under pressure as competitors like Douyin see rapid growth, with Douyin's GMV projected to reach 3.5 trillion yuan in 2024, growing over 30% [3][6] Group 2: Promotion Challenges - The traditional promotional model, exemplified by the "Double 11" shopping festival, has lost its appeal, with the event's duration extended to 28 days in 2024, resulting in a 27% GMV increase to 1.442 trillion yuan, but largely due to extended promotional periods rather than genuine consumer interest [10][12] - Consumers are increasingly fatigued by frequent promotions, leading to a decline in the effectiveness of traditional discount strategies, as evidenced by the 15.2% GMV growth during the 618 festival, which also relied on extended promotional periods [12][10] Group 3: International Expansion - Traditional e-commerce is looking to international markets for growth, with plans to host "Double 11" in 20 countries, reflecting a collective effort to seek survival through global expansion [14] - However, international expansion is fraught with challenges, including stricter regulations in the U.S. and EU, competition from local giants like Amazon and Mercado Libre, and difficulties in adapting to consumer habits in developed markets [16][18] Group 4: Strategic Misalignment - The core issue for traditional e-commerce lies in "strategic confusion and identity misalignment," as companies attempt to defend their market share while blindly following trends, leading to a diversion of resources from their core business [21][23] - Companies like Alibaba are investing heavily in new ventures like food delivery and instant retail, but this has resulted in a significant drop in profits, with an 85% year-on-year decline reported in their latest financial results [10][21] Group 5: Future Outlook - The current landscape of global e-commerce is undergoing a transformation, with companies needing to refine their core competencies rather than relying on subsidies and extended promotions to attract users [24][26] - The mid-life crisis of traditional e-commerce is viewed as a turning point, where adapting to changes and leveraging accumulated advantages could lead to overcoming current challenges [26]