人民币再创1年来新高，离岸人民币对美元升破7.06，什么原因？

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is primarily driven by market expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December 2024, alongside a backdrop of a weakening US dollar and strengthening domestic economic conditions [1][2][3]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Movements - The RMB to USD central parity rate was raised by 40 basis points to 7.0754, marking the highest level since October 14, 2024 [1]. - The onshore RMB closed at 7.0661, appreciating by 51 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. - Offshore RMB rose to 7.0585, reaching a new high since October 9, 2024, with an increase of 84 points [1]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing RMB Strength - Experts attribute the RMB's appreciation to two main factors: the strong performance of the domestic economy and the recent decline in the US dollar index [2][3]. - The RMB's strength against the dollar has also led to an increase in the CFETS index, indicating a broader appreciation against a basket of currencies [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the RMB has room for appreciation, caution is advised against betting on a one-sided trend due to potential volatility [4][5]. - The RMB's long-term trend is expected to be upward, with predictions that it may break below 7 against the dollar in the coming year [4]. - The strengthening RMB is anticipated to attract more foreign capital into the domestic market, enhancing the appeal of RMB-denominated assets [5][6].