每日投行/机构观点梳理（2025-12-03）

Group 1: Currency and Monetary Policy - Deutsche Bank analysts suggest that if the next Federal Reserve Chair fails to effectively address inflation risks, the US dollar may face downward pressure, particularly if they respond to President Trump's interest rate cut proposals [1] - The expectation of a more accommodative stance from the Federal Reserve could pressure the dollar even before any actual policy changes occur [1] Group 2: European Banking Sector - Morgan Stanley analysts express optimism for European bank stocks, predicting continued growth in a "perfect environment" characterized by economic improvement, stable interest rates, and low unemployment [2] - The Stoxx 600 Bank Index has seen a cumulative increase of 55% this year, significantly outperforming the benchmark index's 13% rise, with several banks expected to double their stock prices by 2025 [2] Group 3: Indian Stock Market - Nomura Securities forecasts a 12% increase in India's Nifty 50 index by the end of 2026, driven by supportive policies and recovering economic momentum [3] Group 4: Global Economic Outlook - BNP Paribas predicts a resilient global economy in 2026, supported by monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, and strong household balance sheets [4] - The bank anticipates US economic growth of 1.9% and Eurozone growth of 1.5% in 2026 [4] Group 5: UK Bond Market - BNP Paribas expects UK government bond yields to remain range-bound in the first half of 2026 before declining in the second half, with a forecast of 4.50% by Q2 and 4.30% by year-end [5] Group 6: Eurozone Inflation - ING economists note that a slight increase in Eurozone inflation does not provide the European Central Bank with a reason to cut rates in December, as inflation remains high and balanced by various factors [6] Group 7: Japanese Bond Market - Bank of America forecasts that Japan's 10-year government bond yield will rise to 2% by the end of 2026 due to wage growth and fiscal expansion [7] Group 8: Gold Market - China International Capital Corporation maintains a bullish outlook on gold, suggesting that the bull market is not over despite recent price increases [8] Group 9: Liquidity in December - China International Capital Corporation indicates that there is likely no liquidity gap in December, with limited risks for the bond market [9] Group 10: Energy Storage Sector - CITIC Securities highlights a significant increase in the certainty of energy storage expansion, driven by strong investment and supportive policies [10] Group 11: Chinese Equity Market - China Postal Securities predicts a "long cycle, structural bull market" for the Chinese equity market in 2026, supported by improving corporate earnings [11]