海外视点丨经合组织预测26年全球经济增2.9%，中国4.4%

Group 1 - The OECD forecasts a global economic growth rate of 2.9% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2025, maintaining the previous predictions from September [2] - The agreement on tariffs between the US and China is expected to support global economic growth, alleviating initial concerns about a significant slowdown in the US-centered economy [2] - The OECD predicts that the impact of increased US tariffs will become more apparent in the future, leading to a slowdown in global economic growth in 2026 compared to 2025 [2] Group 2 - The average effective tariff rate in the US has decreased to 14% as of late November, down from 15.4% in June, but remains significantly higher than the pre-Trump administration levels of just over 2% [2] - Trade tariffs, particularly between the US and China, are expected to raise business costs, suppressing investment and trade activities, with economic growth anticipated to slow down from the second half of 2025 [2] - In the US, factors such as government layoffs and reduced immigration are expected to hinder economic growth, although strong investment in the AI sector is projected to provide support [3] Group 3 - The OECD has raised Japan's economic growth forecast for 2026 to 0.9%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous prediction, due to the stimulating effects of fiscal policy [3]