中国为何此时筑牢虚拟货币防线？从石油到稳定币美元找新锚

Group 1: Digital Currency Regulations - The U.S. White House has established a presidential task force on digital asset markets while banning the development of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) within the U.S. [1] - China has intensified its crackdown on virtual currencies, with over 150 cases of money laundering related to virtual currencies reported since 2025, involving amounts exceeding 10 billion RMB [3]. - The People's Bank of China has identified stablecoins as a significant risk, with global cryptocurrency market volatility exceeding 70% in 2025, raising concerns about the transparency and safety of the underlying assets of stablecoins [3]. Group 2: U.S. Debt and Stablecoins - The U.S. federal debt is growing at nearly $2 trillion annually, surpassing $37.2 trillion, with stablecoins being seen as a new anchor for the dollar [4]. - Currently, the global stablecoin market is approximately $267.4 billion, with 95% being dollar-pegged stablecoins, which are heavily invested in short-term U.S. Treasury bonds [4]. - The "Payment Stablecoin Act" mandates that stablecoin issuers must invest 100% of their reserves in U.S. cash or short-term Treasury bonds, creating a mechanism for debt absorption that links stablecoin growth to U.S. debt demand [4]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - The evolution of the dollar's anchoring mechanisms has transitioned from the gold standard established in 1944 to the current reliance on stablecoins, with over 98% of stablecoin market value pegged to the dollar [5]. - The U.S. is working on establishing a "digital dollar anchor," as emerging digital economic scenarios increasingly depend on this framework [5]. - The competition between the U.S. and China in the digital currency space is expected to deepen over the next five years as dollar stablecoins approach the trillion-dollar mark [8]. Group 4: Strategic Considerations for China - China's recent actions to strengthen its defenses against virtual currencies reflect strategic considerations, including the potential financial risks associated with the deep integration of U.S. stablecoins and Treasury bonds [6]. - Cross-border capital flows through virtual currencies have increased by 150% in 2024, posing new challenges for traditional regulatory measures [6]. - The internationalization of the renminbi is at a critical stage, with cross-border trade settlements in renminbi surpassing 31.5% in Q3 2024, necessitating measures to prevent stablecoin systems from creating barriers to this process [6]. Group 5: Digital Currency Initiatives in China - The pilot program for China's digital currency has expanded to 26 regions, covering various scenarios such as cross-border trade and supply chain finance [7]. - China is actively participating in the formulation of international digital currency regulations while balancing risk management and cooperation [7]. - The approval of 16 virtual asset service providers in Hong Kong since 2023 supports China's differentiated strategy of strict domestic regulation while piloting overseas [7].