铜价再创历史新高,LME提货订单飙升至2013年以来最高水平,亚洲需求激增
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-12-03 14:18

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices continue to rise, reaching a historical high, driven by a significant increase in delivery orders from Taiwan and South Korea, marking the largest single-day increase since 2013 [1][5]. Group 1: Price Movement - Copper prices surged over 2.8%, exceeding $11,461 per ton, breaking the previous day's peak [1]. - The main futures contract for copper in Shanghai surpassed 90,000 yuan per ton, marking a historical high with an increase of over 1% [1]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The current price increase is primarily driven by supply-side factors, including a shift of copper inventories to the U.S. to avoid potential import tariffs, leading to shortages in other regions [4]. - Multiple production disruptions in mines this year have resulted in decreased global supply elasticity, contributing to a nearly 30% increase in copper prices year-to-date [4][6]. Group 3: Demand and Inventory - The surge in delivery orders, particularly from Asian warehouses, indicates a pressing demand for copper, further tightening short-term supply and supporting price increases [5]. - The significant rise in "cancellation orders" suggests that traders or end-users are planning to withdraw copper from exchange warehouses, reflecting urgent spot demand [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Market attention is shifting towards upcoming U.S. economic data releases, including ADP employment, import prices, and industrial production metrics, which may influence future monetary policy expectations and copper price trends [4]. - Ongoing negotiations regarding copper concentrate processing fees (TC/RC) are currently stalled, with miners leveraging their supply-side advantages, potentially increasing future raw material costs for smelting and exacerbating supply tightness [6].