Taiwan Semiconductor Trading at a Discount: How to Play the Stock?

Core Insights - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) stock is currently viewed as attractive from a valuation perspective, trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 24.31, which is lower than the sector average of 28.53 [1][4] - TSMC is a leader in the global chip foundry market, benefiting significantly from the AI boom, with major clients like NVIDIA, Marvell, and Broadcom relying on TSMC for advanced chip manufacturing [5][6] - The company is aggressively investing in capital expenditures, planning to spend between $40 billion and $42 billion in 2025, primarily focused on advanced manufacturing processes [7] - TSMC's revenues surged 41% year-over-year to $33.1 billion in Q3 2025, driven by strong demand for its 3nm and 5nm chips, which now account for 60% of total wafer sales [8][9] - The company raised its revenue growth guidance for full-year 2025 to a mid-30% range, reflecting strong demand for its advanced chips [10] - Technical indicators suggest a bullish trend for TSMC, with shares trading above their 50-day and 200-day moving averages [11][14] Financial Performance - TSMC's earnings per share (EPS) increased by 39% to $2.92, supported by the demand for advanced nodes [9] - Gross margins improved by 170 basis points to 59.5%, indicating better cost efficiencies [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 revenues is $32.6 billion and $120.47 billion, respectively, showing year-over-year growth of 21.3% and 33.7% [10] Investment Considerations - Despite its strengths, TSMC faces near-term challenges, including softness in key markets like PCs and smartphones, which are projected to see only low single-digit growth in 2025 [17] - The company's global expansion strategy, including new fabs in the U.S., Japan, and Germany, is expected to impact gross margins negatively by 2-3 percentage points annually over the next three to five years [18] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly U.S.-China relations, pose strategic risks for TSMC, given its significant revenue exposure to China [19] - Overall, TSMC is considered a cornerstone of the semiconductor industry, with strong long-term growth prospects, but short-term headwinds warrant a cautious approach [20][21]