铜价狂飙，刷新历史高点！美国资本，杀疯了！

Core Insights - The copper market is experiencing intense competition due to tight supply and record-high prices, with significant implications for the industry moving into 2026 [1][2][3] Price Trends - On December 3, 2023, the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price reached a historic high of $11,435 per ton, marking a nearly 3% increase within the day [2] - The Shanghai copper futures also hit a record high, surpassing 90,000 yuan per ton [2] - Other metals such as tin and silver also saw significant price increases, indicating a broader trend in the metals market [2] Supply Chain Dynamics - Morgan Stanley predicts that supply disruptions and global inventory mismatches could push copper prices to $12,500 per ton in the first half of 2026 [3] - The LME reported a record increase in copper delivery applications, with a surge of 50,575 tons, the largest since 2013 [3] - The ongoing price disparity between COMEX and LME copper, which fluctuates between $200 and $400, is contributing to a tight supply in non-U.S. markets [3][5] Strategic Stockpiling - U.S. funds have been aggressively stockpiling copper, with COMEX inventories increasing over 300% year-on-year, now accounting for 62% of total inventories across major exchanges [5] - The strategic stockpiling is seen as a response to potential tariffs and reflects a broader concern about supply chain vulnerabilities [5][8] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts predict that a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December could further elevate copper prices, as the demand for copper is being driven by emerging sectors such as AI, electric vehicles, and renewable energy [7][8] - The anticipated negotiations for copper smelting fees in 2026, combined with tight supply conditions, may lead to further price increases [7][8]