年末楼市供应放量 多城新房推盘提速显暖意

Core Insights - The real estate market is experiencing a year-end surge with significant increases in new home supply across multiple cities, indicating a structural recovery in the market [1][5] - Major cities are leading the supply increase, particularly Guangzhou, which has shown remarkable growth in new home offerings [3][4] Supply Dynamics - In November, 30 key cities are expected to see a new supply of 6.69 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 16%, driven by policy optimizations in core cities [1] - The four first-tier cities are projected to contribute 1.49 million square meters of new supply, with a month-on-month growth of 23%, surpassing the average of the 30 cities [3] - Guangzhou is highlighted as a benchmark with an expected supply of 610,000 square meters, marking a significant recovery from previous declines [3] Regional Performance - Second and third-tier cities are also showing positive supply signals, with cities like Suzhou, Dongguan, and Changzhou experiencing over 100% month-on-month supply growth [4] - Hangzhou and Xi'an are noted for their effective "sales-driven production" cycles, with Hangzhou's supply increasing by 45% month-on-month and 22% year-on-year [4] Market Sentiment - The increase in supply is attributed to real estate companies striving to meet annual sales targets, with November and December being critical months for sales [5] - Continuous policy support, including adjustments in down payment ratios and mortgage rates, is enhancing confidence among developers [5] Future Outlook - The industry anticipates a structural recovery as the year-end approaches, with expectations for sustained high supply levels into December [6] - The key to the year-end market will be the alignment of supply with local demand, necessitating targeted policies for different cities [6]