全球降息狂欢进入倒计时！宽松货币政策时代即将终结？

Core Insights - The OECD predicts that the interest rate cut cycle in developed economies will end by the end of 2026, indicating that central banks are nearing the limits of their policy easing capacity [1][3][15] - The report highlights a significant trend where many central banks will need to maintain interest rates above pre-pandemic levels to control inflation, primarily due to elevated public debt levels [3][7][15] Group 1: Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates only twice before the end of 2026, maintaining the federal funds rate between 3.25% and 3.5% in 2027 [1][5] - Other developed economies show a divergence in monetary policy, with the Eurozone and Canada having no further room for rate cuts, while the UK is expected to halt cuts in the first half of 2026 [5][15] - Japan is an exception, with stable inflation around 2%, leading to a gradual tightening of its monetary policy [5][7] Group 2: Economic Growth Projections - Despite tightening monetary policies, the OECD has raised growth forecasts for major economies, predicting a global GDP growth of 3.2% in 2025, slowing to 2.9% in 2026, and rebounding to 3.1% in 2027 [9][15] - The rapid growth of AI investments is identified as a key driver of industrial production in the U.S. and some Asian economies [9][15] Group 3: Fiscal Policy Challenges - The OECD warns that many governments should utilize the current stable period to address rising debt burdens, as long-term spending pressures in healthcare, climate transition, and pensions will significantly constrain fiscal policy space [1][13][15] - Only a few countries plan to significantly tighten fiscal policies in the next two years, with some, like Germany, having limited room for debt expansion to support sustainable growth in defense spending [13][15]