Is CashAI the Engine Powering Dave's Fintech Momentum?

Core Insights - Dave Inc.'s proprietary underwriting engine, CashAI, significantly enhances credit risk assessment and eligibility, leading to improved ExtraCash originations and delinquency rates [1] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Dave reported $2 billion in ExtraCash originations, marking a 49% year-over-year increase, with consistent growth observed in previous quarters (46% in Q1 and 51% in Q2) [2] - The average 28-day delinquency rate decreased by 7 basis points to 2.33% in Q3 2025, with a notable drop to 2.19% in September due to CashAI v5.5 [3] - Record revenues of $150.8 million were achieved in Q3 2025, representing a 63% year-over-year increase, with adjusted net income rising 193% year-over-year [4] Future Guidance - Management projects revenue for the full year to be between $544 million and $547 million, an increase from the previous guidance of $505 million to $515 million [6] - Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $215 million and $218 million, up from the prior estimate of $180 million to $190 million, indicating strong confidence in CashAI's performance [6] Stock Performance - Dave's stock has surged 131% over the past year, outperforming the industry average of 7.9% and contrasting with peers like First Advantage Corporation, which saw a 31.7% decline [7] Valuation Metrics - Dave trades at a 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of 14.56, which is lower than the industry average of 25.27, but higher than First Advantage's 10.75 [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Dave's earnings for 2025 and 2026 has increased by 24.7% and 12%, respectively, over the past 60 days [14]