Headline ADP Payrolls Number Comes in Negative

Employment Data - The ADP monthly jobs report indicates a decline of -32K private-sector payrolls for November, falling short of expectations for +40K and the previous month's revised +47K [1] - This marks the fourth negative month for private-sector payroll growth in the last six, with a four-month trailing average now at -4K, the first negative reading since early 2020 during the Covid pandemic [2] Small Business Impact - The losses in private-sector jobs are primarily attributed to small businesses (fewer than 50 employees), which saw a significant drop of -120K jobs, marking a post-Covid low [2] - Small businesses have experienced six lower months out of the last seven, highlighting vulnerabilities in the current labor market [2] Job Loss Breakdown - Among small businesses, companies with fewer than 20 employees lost -46K jobs, while those with 20-49 employees accounted for -74K job losses [3] - The sectors most affected include Manufacturing, which lost -18K jobs, and Information Services, which saw a decline of -20K jobs [4] Wage Trends - Job Stayers experienced an average wage increase of +4.4%, while Job Changers saw a higher average increase of +6.3%, indicating a tightening labor market [5] Import and Export Prices - Import and Export Prices for September remained unchanged, with imports showing a year-over-year increase of +0.3% and exports up +3.8%, the highest in nearly three years [6][7] Market Reaction - Following the release of the ADP jobs data, pre-market futures initially showed gains but turned negative, indicating a potential reaction to the economic reports [8][9] Upcoming Economic Data - Further economic indicators, including Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for September, as well as final S&P Services PMI and ISM Services results for November, are expected to be released [10]