日本通胀呈顽固化特征

Core Viewpoint - Japan is experiencing persistent inflation characterized by a continuous rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for 50 months and over 20,000 food items, driven by input inflation, supply shortages, delayed monetary policy, and new fiscal stimulus measures [1][2]. Group 1: Input Inflation - Japan's economy is heavily reliant on imports for resources, leading to increased prices for commodities such as energy, food, and raw materials, exacerbated by a prolonged low-interest rate policy that has devalued the yen [1]. Group 2: Supply Shortages - The price of rice, which holds a significant weight in Japan's inflation statistics, has surged due to extreme weather conditions affecting harvests, with wholesale prices expected to rise by 217% year-on-year starting in 2024 [1]. - The aging agricultural workforce and abandoned farmland contribute to the difficulty in meeting supply demands, keeping rice prices elevated despite government intervention [1]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Delays - The Bank of Japan has been slow to respond to inflation, adhering to a "temporary inflation" narrative despite core inflation exceeding targets for over three years, which has inadvertently allowed inflation to worsen [1]. Group 4: Fiscal Stimulus Measures - The new fiscal stimulus policy under Prime Minister Kishi has continued the expansionary fiscal approach of former Prime Minister Abe, with measures such as subsidies and fuel tax cuts potentially exacerbating long-term inflation [2].