普京放话闪电战：欧洲敢接招吗？

Core Viewpoint - The tension between Russia and Europe has reached a peak, with Putin's declaration of a "lightning war" serving as both a warning and a strategic maneuver against European reliance on the U.S. [1][3] Military Preparedness - Russia's military readiness is underscored by the "West-2024" military exercises, where missile units demonstrated rapid deployment capabilities, termed "battlefield instant mobility" by foreign media [3] - The Russian defense industry is experiencing a surge, with two military companies projected to see a 23% increase in revenue in 2024, and tank production is operating at full capacity [3] Energy Dynamics - Despite a significant reduction in gas exports to Europe, Russia maintains control over energy supplies to Southern Europe through the "TurkStream" pipeline, while energy exports to Asia have stabilized domestic conditions [3] - Russian citizens have not faced increases in gas prices, and pensions have been raised by 5.5%, contributing to Putin's stable approval ratings above 80% [3] European Internal Divisions - The EU is experiencing internal strife regarding support for Ukraine, with only half of the promised €50 billion in aid delivered, and significant dissent among Eastern European nations [5] - Germany's attempts to ease relations with Russia are met with criticism from Eastern European countries, while France's actions contradict its calls for European strategic autonomy [5] U.S. Involvement - The U.S. is benefiting from the situation, with a 38% increase in arms exports to Europe projected for 2024, and European reliance on U.S. LNG has doubled since 2021 [8] - The ongoing conflict has positioned the U.S. as a significant arms supplier, with companies like Lockheed Martin seeing increased demand for military equipment [8] Long-term Challenges - Despite the resilience of the Russian military-industrial complex, Western sanctions are causing technological challenges, particularly in the semiconductor sector [8] - The conflict is expected to be a prolonged struggle, with the potential for Europe to either continue as a U.S. ally or seek a more independent approach in negotiations with Russia [8]