华尔街见闻早餐FM-Radio | 2025年12月4日

Market Overview - The unexpected decline in the US ADP data has led investors to believe that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week, with the "bad news is good news" narrative resurfacing [3][4] - US stocks saw broad gains, with nearly 350 companies in the S&P 500 rising, while small-cap stocks outperformed with a nearly 2% increase [3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield fell by 2.7 basis points, and the dollar dropped nearly 0.5%, reaching a one-month low [3] - Ethereum surged approximately 5.7% and Bitcoin rose by 2.08% [3] Key Developments - The US November ADP report showed an unexpected drop in employment by 32,000, marking the largest decline since March 2023, with small businesses experiencing significant layoffs [4][15] - The ISM services sector expanded at its fastest pace in nine months, with the price index hitting a seven-month low and the employment index reaching a six-month high [4][15] - Microsoft reportedly lowered its AI software sales targets, leading to a nearly 3% drop in its stock price, although the company later denied the claims [5][15] - Meta has hired Apple's design executive Alan Dye, indicating a potential talent shift in the tech industry [16] Industry Insights - Salesforce expects a revenue increase of over 10% this quarter, raising its full-year guidance, driven by strong AI application performance [16] - Anthropic is preparing for an IPO as early as 2026, with internal reports indicating a 50% productivity increase due to AI integration [17] - The Trump administration is reportedly considering a directive to support the robotics industry, which has led to significant stock price increases for companies like iRobot [18] - The successful launch of China's Zhuque-3 rocket marks a milestone in the commercial space sector, despite a failure in the first-stage recovery [18][23] Commodity Market - Copper prices reached a historical high, with LME orders surging to the highest level since 2013, driven by increased demand in Asia [20][36] - Glencore plans to increase its copper production to 1.6 million tons annually over the next decade [20] - The EU is pushing for a "70% European manufacturing" standard for critical goods, which could increase annual costs for businesses by over €10 billion [20] Domestic Developments - China's November RatingDog services PMI slightly decreased to 52.1, with new export orders showing significant improvement [21] - The Chinese government is focusing on promoting new urbanization as a key driver for domestic demand and industrial upgrades [14]