两年半最差，“小非农”意外利空，美联储鹰派是否会让步

Core Insights - The U.S. private sector experienced its largest job loss in nearly two and a half years in November, primarily driven by small businesses, indicating a general slowdown in hiring activity [1][2] - This marks the third instance of job losses in the private sector within four months, raising concerns about a potential increase in the unemployment rate and adverse economic impacts [1][2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting may see the end of speculation regarding interest rate cuts due to the current employment trends [1] Employment Market Trends - According to ADP, U.S. businesses cut 32,000 jobs in November, the largest decline since March 2023, with small businesses losing 120,000 jobs [2] - Medium-sized businesses added 51,000 jobs, while large businesses increased their workforce by 39,000 [2] - The ADP report highlights ongoing recruitment freezes as employers navigate consumer caution and economic uncertainty [5][6] Economic Indicators - The ISM reported a continued decline in manufacturing sector activity, with employment indicators contracting for ten consecutive months [6] - Despite a rise in the services sector index to 52.6, hiring and investment remain cautious due to ongoing tariff uncertainties [6] - The overall labor market is perceived to be cooling, with expectations that significant improvements in hiring will not occur until trade tensions ease and economic growth accelerates [6] Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is set to announce its final interest rate decision of the year, with labor market weakness being a primary concern [7] - Market expectations for a rate cut have risen significantly, with probabilities nearing 90% following the ADP report [7][9] - Some Federal Reserve officials express concerns about inflation, advocating for maintaining current interest rates, although this view is in the minority [7] Inflation and Cost Pressures - Inflation remains a focal point for future policy discussions, with import tariffs contributing to cost pressures that may keep inflation above the Fed's 2% target for some time [10] - Recent data indicates that while import prices remained stable, consumer goods prices have risen, suggesting that tariff costs are being passed on to consumers [10]