哈塞特接棒概率飙升至80%！美联储高层洗牌在即：鲍威尔去留牵动市场神经

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has canceled interviews for candidates to succeed Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair, with Kevin Hassett emerging as the frontrunner, facing significant challenges amid economic uncertainty [1][2]. Group 1: Candidate Overview - Kevin Hassett, the current Director of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, is seen as a key figure in Trump's plan to reshape the Federal Reserve [2]. - Hassett has a strong probability of becoming the next Fed Chair, with predictions indicating over 80% likelihood as of December 3 [3]. - Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is a primary competitor for the position, having publicly criticized the current Fed structure [4]. Group 2: Implications of Powell's Decision - If Powell does not resign from the Fed Board after his term, it could limit Trump's influence over the Fed [5]. - Powell's potential decision to remain on the Board could create a buffer against Trump's attempts to exert control over the central bank [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Wall Street anticipates that Hassett's nomination could lead to a bullish trend in risk assets, but uncertainty remains if Powell does not announce his resignation [6]. - Current market predictions for the federal funds rate in December 2026 are around 3.02%, but Hassett's stance suggests a lower neutral rate of 2% to 2.5% [6]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to maintain resilient growth, with inflation projected to remain persistent, leading to only one additional rate cut next year after a potential cut in December [7]. - The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) forecasts a median economic growth rate of 2% for 2026, supported by stronger consumer spending and business investment, despite potential negative impacts from new tariffs [7].