10%的提升带来10万亿增量 “十五五”居民消费率大有可为

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is expected to release a more proactive macro policy tone, with a focus on boosting domestic demand as a key area of attention [1] Summary by Sections Economic Policy and Consumer Spending - The "Suggestions" document includes "significantly increasing the resident consumption rate" as a primary goal for economic and social development [1] - The emphasis is on strengthening domestic circulation and enhancing consumption to drive economic growth [1] - China's resident consumption rate is projected to be approximately 39.9% of GDP in 2024, significantly lower than the 50%-70% range seen in developed countries [1][3] Economic Impact of Increased Consumption - A 10 percentage point increase in the resident consumption rate could generate over 10 trillion yuan in economic growth [2] - This increase would expand the domestic circulation scale and improve investment returns, while also driving service consumption and high-tech industry development [2] Structural Shortcomings in Consumption - China's resident consumption rate has remained around 40%, with a notable gap of 10-30 percentage points compared to developed nations [3] - The core shortfall is in service consumption, which is currently at 46.1%, lower than that of developed countries by 6-21 percentage points [3] Investment in Human Capital and Services - The "Suggestions" propose various measures to boost consumption, including increasing public service spending and enhancing residents' consumption capacity [6] - Investment in human capital is emphasized, with a focus on improving education, healthcare, and social security systems to support consumption growth [7][8] Long-term Strategies for Consumption Growth - To enhance consumption, it is essential to increase residents' disposable income and improve the social security system [11] - The government aims to raise the proportion of residents' income in national income distribution and improve labor remuneration [11] Recent Policy Initiatives - The government has introduced policies to stimulate consumption, including a special bond fund of 150 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement in 2024 [9] - Measures to enhance the consumption environment and promote high-quality supply are also being implemented [10]