Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-04 00:18Core Viewpoint - The latest report from Tianfeng Securities indicates that the cement industry has strong support for bottom-line profitability in the short term, and its future development direction is becoming clearer [1] Short-term Analysis - The cement industry is currently entering a critical period of staggered production during the heating season, with over 85% of clinker lines in northern provinces in a shutdown state [2] - Various provinces have announced their shutdown plans for December, with the Yangtze River Delta region planning to shut down for 13 to 15 days, and Hunan province planning a complete shutdown for a month due to environmental pressures [2] - The increased efforts in staggered production have effectively reduced market supply, providing strong support for cement prices and establishing a solid foundation for bottom-line profitability in the industry [2] Related Companies - Conch Cement, as a leading company in the cement industry, has a large production scale and extensive sales network, allowing it to better control market supply and stabilize product prices during staggered production [3] - Huaxin Cement has made significant investments in technology research and environmental protection, enabling it to maintain a high market share and provide strong support for short-term profitability during staggered production [3] Long-term Outlook - The year 2025 is identified as a crucial turning point for the cement industry, with head enterprises beginning to address excess production capacity [4] - By November, a total of 52.5 million tons of capacity has been replaced, while 83.59 million tons of capacity has been exited, with policies in 2025 aimed at regulating production order in the industry [4] - The actual effects of excess production governance are expected to become evident in 2026, leading to a more equitable market competition and increased industry concentration [4] - Jidong Cement is highlighted as a company to watch, as it holds a significant market position in northern regions and is expected to optimize its capacity structure and improve production efficiency in response to policy changes [4] - Tapai Group, with a strong market share in southern China, focuses on technological innovation and green development, positioning itself to excel in future market competition [4] Summary - Tianfeng Securities' report outlines the short-term and long-term development trajectories of the cement industry, emphasizing the strong support for bottom-line profitability from staggered production and the new opportunities presented by the 2025 policy window and the expected effects of excess production governance in 2026 [5]