美联储高层即将洗牌

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration has canceled interviews for candidates to replace Jerome Powell as the Federal Reserve Chair, with Kevin Hassett emerging as the frontrunner for the position amid ongoing economic uncertainties [2][3]. Group 1: Candidate Overview - Kevin Hassett, the current Director of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, is seen as a key figure in Trump's plan to reshape the Federal Reserve, having previously supported Trump's policies on tariffs and interest rates [3]. - As of December 3, Hassett has an over 80% probability of becoming the next Federal Reserve Chair according to Kalshi prediction market data [3]. Group 2: Powell's Position - If Hassett becomes the new Chair, he will face the challenge of restructuring the Federal Reserve, which currently has three members appointed by Biden and three by Trump [4]. - Powell's decision to remain on the Board after his term ends could create additional vacancies for Trump to fill, potentially increasing his influence over the Federal Reserve [5]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Wall Street anticipates that Hassett's nomination could lead to a bullish trend in risk assets, but uncertainty remains if Powell does not resign from the Board, which could hinder further appointments [7]. - Current market predictions for the Federal Funds rate in December 2026 are around 3.02%, but Hassett's stance suggests a lower neutral rate of 2% to 2.5% once inflation is under control [7]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - The NABE forecasts moderate economic growth in the U.S. for 2026, with a median growth rate of 2%, supported by stronger consumer spending and business investment, although new tariffs may reduce growth by 0.25 percentage points or more [8][9]. - Inflation is expected to slightly decrease to 2.6% in 2026, with ongoing tariff impacts being a significant factor [9].