转折！10月纯苯进口量环比增14% 后市怎么走？

Core Viewpoint - In October, China's benzene imports rebounded significantly, reaching 496,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 14.18%, reversing a three-month decline and providing a boost to the domestic chemical market [2] Group 1: Import Dynamics - The increase in benzene imports in October was primarily driven by South Korea, which contributed 43,000 tons of the total increase of 62,000 tons compared to September [2] - The shift in global aromatic trade flows and changes in domestic supply-demand dynamics were key factors behind the rebound in imports [2][3] - The recovery in South Korean supply was influenced by the end of maintenance at major companies, which had previously reduced export capacity [2] Group 2: Market Influences - The decline in gasoline demand in Asia indirectly supported the increase in benzene imports, as resources shifted from gasoline blending to chemical products [3] - Domestic market demand expectations also played a role in the rise of benzene imports, with increased maintenance losses and new styrene production capacity contributing to a more favorable supply-demand outlook [3] - Styrene, which accounts for over 40% of benzene consumption, has seen its production capacity grow by 18.7% year-on-year, further driving demand for benzene [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the rebound in October, analysts believe that the overall market for benzene in the fourth quarter remains characterized by "strong supply and weak demand," putting pressure on prices [4] - The domestic benzene balance indicates a continued oversupply in the fourth quarter, with reduced demand from the caprolactam industry and uncertainties regarding maintenance schedules for major production facilities [5] - Short-term forecasts suggest that the increase in imports may not be sustainable, with potential declines expected in November due to shifts in South Korean aromatic supply towards the U.S. [5]