需求难言乐观 合成橡胶震荡筑底

Core Viewpoint - The synthetic rubber futures prices have rebounded significantly after a second bottoming out, with the 2601 contract returning to the range of 10,500 to 11,000 yuan/ton. However, the market is facing multiple bearish factors, leading to a forecast of a bottoming phase for synthetic rubber futures in the near future [2][4]. Supply Side - The supply of synthetic rubber is currently ample, with the resumption of normal operations at Fushun Petrochemical and Jilin Petrochemical's first-phase facilities, alongside new installations increasing supply pressure. There is also an expectation of growth in imports, contributing to a continued supply surplus in the butadiene market [2]. - In November, the overall supply of synthetic rubber is expected to remain loose, with the capacity utilization rate for styrene-butadiene rubber in China at 68.13%, a month-on-month decrease of 3.27 percentage points but a year-on-year increase of 0.53 percentage points. Consequently, the production of styrene-butadiene rubber in November was 130,100 tons, down 5.44% month-on-month but up 8.43% year-on-year [2]. - The inventory levels are on the rise, with the total inventory of styrene-butadiene rubber in sample enterprises at 32,400 tons by the end of November, an increase of 5.05% compared to the end of October. Additionally, the inventory of synthetic rubber futures at the Shanghai Futures Exchange reached 15,400 tons, a significant increase of 79.25% from the end of October, with a monthly average inventory growth of 42.40% [2]. Demand Side - The tire industry, the largest end-user of synthetic rubber, underperformed in November due to seasonal demand decline and global trade tensions. The capacity utilization rate for domestic semi-steel radial tire manufacturers was 66%, down 3.36 percentage points month-on-month and down 13.64 percentage points year-on-year. For full-steel radial tires, the utilization rate was 62.75%, a slight increase of 0.71 percentage points month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 2.68 percentage points [3]. - Semi-steel radial tires use approximately 35% synthetic rubber by total weight, while full-steel radial tires use only 8% to 10%, with natural rubber being the primary material (about 45% of total weight). The decline in semi-steel tire utilization indicates a decrease in synthetic rubber demand [3]. - The weakening demand for raw materials from tire manufacturers has further increased inventory pressure for synthetic rubber. The average inventory turnover days for semi-steel tire manufacturers was 45.86 days, an increase of 7.69 days year-on-year, while for full-steel tire manufacturers, it was 40.24 days, an increase of 0.69 days month-on-month. High inventory levels have led to a low purchasing willingness among tire manufacturers, who are adopting flexible production control strategies and maintaining minimal procurement levels for synthetic rubber [3]. Summary - In summary, the short-term outlook for synthetic rubber indicates ample supply and a lack of optimistic demand, with seasonal off-peak characteristics expected to persist until the end of the year. The tire industry remains in a low demand phase, and the traditional off-season for automotive consumption is limiting improvement in foreign trade orders. Given the supply-demand imbalance in the synthetic rubber market, December futures prices are expected to lack sustained upward momentum, with a market trend of oscillation and bottoming likely to prevail [4].