Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-12-04 01:57Core Viewpoint - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has boosted overall commodity prices, leading to significant gains in the secondary market for non-ferrous metals and mining sectors [1][3]. Group 1: Commodity Price Movements - On December 3, the main contract for copper futures on the Shanghai exchange surpassed 90,000 yuan/ton, reaching a historical high [3]. - The average price of tin reached 309,700 yuan/ton, remaining above 300,000 yuan for five consecutive days [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Supply Constraints - Analysts indicate that the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has increased to 89%, which, combined with low domestic inventories and ongoing supply shortages in copper, may support high copper prices [4]. - Supply constraints are exacerbated by incidents at Freeport's Grasberg mine in Indonesia and the Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, tightening global copper supply forecasts for 2026 [4]. Group 3: Demand Drivers - Copper is a crucial raw material for sectors such as electric power grids, electric vehicles, and AI servers, with demand expected to rise as major economies enter a rate-cutting cycle [4]. - The rise in tin prices is attributed to tight supply from mining and positive macroeconomic expectations, with slow recovery in Myanmar's tin mines and low export volumes contributing to the situation [4]. Group 4: Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong performance, with a year-to-date increase of 74.90%, leading among the Shenwan primary industry sectors [5]. - The mining ETF (159690) tracking the non-ferrous metals index has seen a year-to-date increase of 85.34%, indicating better relative elasticity [5]. Group 5: Profitability and Future Outlook - The overall profitability of the non-ferrous metals industry has improved, with a year-on-year net profit growth of 41.43% for the first three quarters of 2025, and a further increase to 50.81% in the third quarter [5]. - The index covers various sub-sectors, including industrial metals, precious metals, energy metals, and minor metals, providing a diversified approach to mitigate price volatility risks [5].