KCM Trade分析师Tim汇评 | 全球市场在双央行决议月的情绪考验

Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates during its meeting on December 9-10, while the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may also announce a rate cut in its meeting later in December [2] - The BOJ has been under pressure to raise rates due to inflation exceeding its 2% target for 44 consecutive months, with the BOJ Governor hinting at this possibility [2] - A divergence in policy paths between the Fed and BOJ could lead to market volatility, especially if the BOJ raises rates after the Fed cuts [3] Group 2: Commodity Market Insights - Gold prices opened higher but faced resistance around the $4270-$4280 range, with profit-taking occurring ahead of key U.S. employment and inflation data [5] - The outlook for gold remains optimistic, largely dependent on U.S. interest rate cuts, with support levels identified at approximately $4066 and stronger support at $3990 [5] - Oil prices are difficult to predict due to ongoing peace negotiations regarding Ukraine, with current U.S. crude oil trading around $58.50 per barrel, above the support level of $57.90 but below the resistance level of $59.30 [6] Group 3: Economic Data and Market Expectations - Economic data will play a crucial role in assessing the likelihood of a rate cut by the Fed, with upcoming reports on private sector employment, layoffs, and initial jobless claims being key indicators [8] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, to be released on Friday, will be a focal point for measuring inflation and could impact rate cut expectations [8]