瑞银财富管理：有利环境或继续利好全球股市

Core Viewpoint - UBS Wealth Management's Chief Investment Office (CIO) believes that a favorable environment may continue to benefit global stock markets [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - A slowdown in the labor market is leading the Federal Reserve to maintain a bias towards accommodative policies, with recent data suggesting a higher likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut [1] - UBS emphasizes that whether the Fed cuts rates this month or waits until January, the change is merely in timing, not in the overall accommodative stance or the ultimate target level of the federal funds rate, which is crucial for mid-term investment outlooks [1] Group 2: Growth Projections - UBS anticipates that U.S. growth will accelerate in the second half of 2026, supported by targeted tax cuts and fiscal policy measures [1] - Fiscal stimulus and infrastructure investment in major developed economies may also contribute to accelerated growth, providing a favorable environment for risk assets [1] - Strong earnings growth is expected to drive further stock market increases, with projected earnings growth for major global markets next year ranging from 7% to 14% [1] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Given the continuation of the favorable environment until 2026, under-invested investors are encouraged to consider increasing their equity exposure [2] - UBS is optimistic about sectors such as U.S. technology, healthcare, utilities, and banking, while European markets are expected to benefit from policy and structural growth [2] - In the Asia-Pacific region, UBS favors Australia, Japan, and China, particularly the Chinese technology sector [2]