杨德龙：A股、港股科技板块尚未呈现系统性泡沫，明年行情仍有延续基础

Group 1: Fund Market Recovery - The fund issuance market has shown a significant recovery with over 1,375 new funds launched in the first 11 months, a 35% increase year-on-year [3] - The total amount raised exceeded 1.06 trillion units, slightly up from the previous year, with equity funds surpassing bond funds, accounting for over 50% of the total [3] - This structural change indicates improving market sentiment and a rising risk appetite among investors, leading to increased capital inflow into the A-share market through public funds [3] Group 2: Market Sentiment Indicators - New fund issuance is a sensitive indicator of market sentiment, reflecting overall market emotions and capital flows [4] - In low market phases, weak investor subscription often leads to many failed fund issuances, which can signal potential buying opportunities [4] - A surge in funds raising over 10 billion units in a single day may indicate a market nearing a temporary peak, suggesting caution for investors [4][5] Group 3: Historical Context and Caution - Historical instances show that multiple funds raising over 100 billion units in a day have preceded market corrections, notably in 2007, 2015, and 2021 [5] - Investors are advised to be cautious during high issuance periods, as they may correspond to market peaks, and consider redeeming existing holdings [5] Group 4: Currency and Capital Flows - The RMB has been appreciating, with the USD/RMB exchange rate rising approximately 0.48% in November, reaching a high of 7.0738, the highest in over a year [6] - The appreciation is driven by a weakening USD index and significant progress in China's technological innovation, enhancing global confidence in China's economic prospects [6][7] Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The RMB's appreciation is expected to attract foreign capital into RMB assets, supporting A-share and Hong Kong stock valuations [7] - Despite recent market volatility, the stabilization of the exchange rate may boost market confidence, with international investment banks expressing positive views on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [7] Group 6: Future Market Outlook - The Shanghai Composite Index at 4,000 points is seen as a midpoint in a slow bull market, with potential for a broader bull market as economic fundamentals improve [8] - Historically, the market tends to experience a "spring offensive" around the Lunar New Year, driven by increased credit supply and returning capital from profit-taking [8] Group 7: Technology Sector Focus - The AI sector has shown strong performance, with ongoing government support for "AI+" initiatives, indicating a solid foundation for continued growth in tech stocks in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [9][10] - While the US AI sector may exhibit bubble-like valuations, the A-share and Hong Kong tech sectors have not yet reached systemic bubble levels, presenting investment opportunities [9]