IDC sees global smartphone shipments dipping in 2026 as memory costs bite

Group 1: Global Smartphone Market Outlook - Global smartphone shipments are expected to decline by 0.9% in 2026 due to rising memory chip prices pushing average selling prices to record highs [1] - The decline in 2026 follows a stronger 2025, where shipments are forecasted to grow by 1.5% to 1.25 billion units, driven by Apple's strong performance and a rebound in China [1] Group 2: Apple’s Performance - Apple is projected to have a record year in 2025, with shipments expected to rise by 6.1% to 247 million units, fueled by high demand for the iPhone 17 series [2] - In China, Apple's market share surpassed 20% in October and November, leading to a revised forecast of 3% shipment growth in the region for the year [2] Group 3: Revenue and Market Dynamics - Apple is expected to generate over $261 billion in revenue from iPhone sales in 2025, representing a 7.2% growth from the previous year [3] - The anticipated downturn in 2026 is attributed to component shortages and Apple's decision to delay its next base iPhone model to early 2027, which will reduce iOS shipments by more than 4% [3] Group 4: Pricing and Market Value - Despite the decline in units, average selling prices are expected to rise to $465 next year, pushing the market's total value to a record $578.9 billion [4] - The ongoing global memory shortage is expected to constrain supply and raise costs, particularly impacting low-to-mid range Android devices [3][5] Group 5: Vendor Strategies - Vendors are expected to adjust their portfolios towards higher-margin models to offset rising bill-of-material costs, with some likely to raise prices outright due to the scarcity and increased cost of memory stocks [5]