特别策划丨“保持制造业合理比重”的深远意义与实现路径

Core Viewpoint - The proportion of manufacturing directly impacts the health of the industrial system, with too low a ratio leading to hollowing out and weakness, while blindly pursuing a high ratio may cause resource misallocation and structural imbalance, ultimately reducing overall economic efficiency. The aim of "maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing" is to stabilize the industrial foundation and optimize the industrial structure, providing reliable support for high-quality economic development [2][5][10]. Historical Perspective - Manufacturing is the cornerstone of modernization, with its proportion reflecting the integrity of the industrial system and the characteristics of economic development stages. In 1952, the industrial added value accounted for only 17.6% of GDP, making the development of manufacturing a primary task for economic modernization. By 2024, the added value of manufacturing is expected to reach 33.6 trillion yuan, with a GDP proportion of 24.9%, demonstrating the effectiveness of China's leapfrog industrialization [4][3][13]. Current Needs - The proportion of manufacturing is a driving force for high-quality economic development. As global industrial chains undergo rapid restructuring, major power competition focuses on technological innovation and high-end manufacturing. The manufacturing sector is crucial for technological innovation, especially in fields like artificial intelligence and new energy, and its development level directly influences the speed of technological breakthroughs and market support [5][6][15]. Regional Development - Manufacturing supports regional coordinated development by promoting industrial transfer and chain extension, aiding economic growth in central and western regions, and providing a solid foundation for narrowing urban-rural gaps and advancing rural revitalization. It also plays a significant role in job creation, further enhancing social stability [6][15]. Economic Security - The proportion of manufacturing is a critical barrier to national economic security, directly related to the autonomy of the industrial chain, technological innovation capabilities, and overall economic safety. Historical experiences from countries like the U.S. and the U.K. show that deindustrialization can lead to significant risks, including industrial chain disruptions and increased inequality. In contrast, countries like Germany, Japan, and South Korea maintain stable manufacturing proportions to ensure robust industrial foundations and international competitiveness [7][16][15]. Definition of Reasonable Proportion - Maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing means achieving a dynamic balance between "quantity stability" and "quality improvement," focusing on structural optimization, innovation-driven growth, and safety resilience. The current manufacturing proportion in China is 24.9%, which is about 10 percentage points higher than the global average, providing solid support for economic growth, employment stability, and trade surplus [8][10][17]. Implementation Pathways - To achieve a reasonable manufacturing proportion, it is essential to stabilize the manufacturing base, enhance core competitiveness through innovation, optimize spatial layout, and strengthen green and safety resilience. This involves maintaining the manufacturing sector's dominant position in the economy, improving investment stability, and promoting traditional industry upgrades while fostering new manufacturing sectors [11][18][19].