人民币，大幅升值！股市，迎利好！

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the RMB against the USD is attributed to a combination of strong domestic economic performance and a decline in the USD, with the RMB's middle rate rising significantly this year [1][3]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Trends - On December 4, the People's Bank of China announced an increase in the RMB middle rate against the USD by 21 basis points to 7.0733, marking a new high in over a year [1]. - The onshore and offshore RMB both reached new highs in appreciation against the USD since October 2024, with an approximate increase of 1000 basis points year-to-date [1][3]. - As of the report, the offshore RMB was quoted at 7.06079 against the USD, while the spot rate was at 7.0680 [1]. Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing RMB Strength - The recent appreciation of the RMB is primarily driven by two factors: strong domestic economic trends and a significant decline in the USD [3]. - Analysts suggest that the RMB's strength is also supported by better-than-expected export performance and a robust domestic capital market since July [3]. - The market anticipates that the RMB will continue to operate in a strong range in the short term, with a focus on USD trends and domestic economic policies [3]. Group 3: Market Predictions and Implications - The market currently estimates an 89% probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in the upcoming meeting, which could further influence the RMB's strength [4]. - The strengthening RMB is expected to boost domestic capital market confidence, positively impacting the stock market [4]. - Analysts predict that the RMB could break the 7 mark against the USD, with potential for further appreciation, possibly reaching 6.95 by the end of 2026 [4][5].