人民币到底该不该升值？对大家有什么影响？

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar reflects China's economic resilience, but it raises concerns for export-oriented businesses [1][3]. Economic Factors - The RMB has appreciated nearly 4% since the beginning of 2025, marking its best annual performance in five years, influenced by a weakening US dollar due to sluggish economic recovery and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3]. - China's economic fundamentals are strong, with a GDP growth of 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, and a manufacturing PMI of 50.8% in October, indicating expansion [3]. - Increased foreign investment and active capital markets, with over 300 billion RMB net inflow from foreign capital into A-shares by the end of November 2025, have bolstered demand for the RMB [3]. Expert Opinions - Goldman Sachs predicts the RMB could rise to 6.85 against the dollar in 2026, citing continued strong economic growth in China and potential further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4]. - The IMF suggests the RMB is undervalued by 18%-50%, indicating further appreciation is possible, which has caused concern among export businesses [5]. Impact on Different Sectors - Import-oriented businesses, such as airlines, benefit from RMB appreciation as it reduces costs for purchasing aircraft and fuel, with a 1% appreciation lowering domestic airline fuel costs by approximately 800 million RMB [6]. - Export-oriented companies face challenges as RMB appreciation makes their products more expensive in international markets, reducing competitiveness, particularly in low-margin industries like textiles and furniture [7][8]. - Regions heavily reliant on exports, such as Guangdong and Zhejiang, may experience slowed GDP growth due to reduced export growth rates, potentially declining by 2-3 percentage points with a 5% RMB appreciation [10]. Recommendations for Stakeholders - Businesses should consider financial tools to hedge against exchange rate risks, such as forward contracts, to mitigate the impact of currency fluctuations [11]. - Investors are advised to adjust asset allocations, favoring sectors that benefit from RMB appreciation while being cautious of those that may suffer [11]. - Individuals planning to travel or study abroad may find it advantageous to exchange currency now, but should do so cautiously to manage risks associated with fluctuating exchange rates [11].