贸发会议：金融动荡重塑贸易格局 世界经济逼近“危机边缘”

Core Insights - The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report indicates that financial market volatility is becoming a key determinant of global trade dynamics and economic outlook, placing the world economy in a more fragile state [1] - The report forecasts a slowdown in global economic growth to 2.6% in 2025, down from 2.9% in 2024 [1] Group 1: Global Trade and Economic Growth - Global trade growth is expected to be around 4% at the beginning of 2025, driven by early imports in response to tariff adjustments and the expansion of service trade propelled by the digital economy [2] - Despite this growth, the fundamental trade growth rate is projected to hover between 2.5% and 3%, with financial factors increasingly influencing investment decisions and supply chain configurations [2] Group 2: Financial Dependency and Vulnerability - Over 90% of global trade relies on bank financing, with the dollar maintaining a dominant position in international payments and trade settlements, making the global trade system sensitive to changes in interest rates and investor sentiment [2] - Developing countries face more pronounced impacts due to limited financing channels, with higher borrowing costs and unstable capital flows constraining their fiscal space [2] Group 3: Climate Impact on Vulnerable Economies - Climate-vulnerable countries incur additional burdens, with extreme weather events leading to an estimated extra interest expenditure of $20 billion annually, accumulating to over $212 billion since 2006 [3] - The dominance of the dollar in global finance has increased, with its share in the SWIFT payment system rising from 39% to approximately 50% over the past five years, further exposing developing countries to global financial cycles [3] Group 4: Recommendations for Economic Resilience - To enhance global economic resilience, the UNCTAD calls for institutional reforms, including improving financing conditions for developing countries, strengthening local currency financial markets, and refining cross-border payment systems [3] - A stable connection between trade and finance is essential for achieving lasting stability, necessitating a policy framework that balances development and sustainability [3]