宽松押注飙升：“影子主席”将执掌美联储？美元的终极压力测试开始

Group 1 - The market is increasingly betting on a dovish policy shift and a rate cut in December, following unexpectedly weak ADP employment data [1] - The current Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May next year, and President Trump has hinted at Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chair, with an official announcement expected early next year [3] - The demand for the short-term yield curve linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is rising, reflecting market expectations of accelerated monetary policy easing after Powell's term ends [3] Group 2 - Kevin Hassett, the current Director of the White House National Economic Council, has a close relationship with Trump and was a key architect of the 2017 tax cuts, raising concerns about the independence of the Fed if he becomes Chair [5] - The nomination of Hassett signals Trump's strongest public criticism of the current Fed's interest rate policy, potentially weakening the long-standing "firewall" between the White House and the Fed [7] - Hassett's inclination towards growth-focused easing policies may lead to quicker rate cuts, raising concerns about the Fed's independence and market predictability [7] Group 3 - The market has not fully priced in the implications of Hassett's potential appointment, but confirmation could lead to a comprehensive reassessment based on "political risk premium" and "easing expectations" [7] - A more dovish Fed could weaken the dollar's interest rate advantage and damage its status as a global reserve currency [7] - Gold prices may rise due to expectations of monetary easing, a weaker dollar, and increased demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical and financial uncertainties [7] Group 4 - The yield curve in the U.S. Treasury market is expected to steepen, with short-term rates declining faster due to rate cut expectations, while long-term bonds may face selling pressure due to inflation concerns [8] - The nomination of Hassett represents a significant test of the independence of the U.S. central bank and the stability of the modern monetary financial system [10]