Venture(US:VEMLY) 3 6 Ke·2025-12-04 07:26Core Insights - The user traffic for various AI coding tools has significantly declined, with Lovable experiencing a drop from 35 million to under 20 million monthly active users, nearly halving its user base [1][10]. - The industry is witnessing a rapid return to value after a period of capital-driven hypergrowth, with high user churn rates prompting companies to focus on sustainable business models [2][10]. User Traffic Trends - Lovable's user traffic decreased by 41% in the last 12 weeks, while Cursor and Replit also saw declines of 18% and 18% respectively [3]. - Other products like Bolt.new and Vercel v0 experienced declines of 27% and 64% respectively, indicating a broader trend of user attrition across the sector [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The initial surge in user numbers was driven by a marketing narrative that appealed to non-developers, but this has not translated into long-term retention [10][11]. - The concept of "Vibe Coding" has been criticized for lacking a sustainable user base, as many users do not renew subscriptions after initial trials [10][14]. Investment Perspectives - Investors are beginning to question the long-term viability of products targeting non-developers, with a shift in focus towards tools that cater to professional developers [15][19]. - The potential for "vibe working," which involves using AI to process data without requiring technical knowledge, is seen as a more sustainable direction for the industry [19][21]. Product Capabilities - Current AI coding tools are limited in their ability to support non-technical users in creating production-level applications, although they have lowered the entry barrier for basic development tasks [20][21]. - The tools are effective for simpler applications but struggle with complex, high-demand projects, indicating a clear boundary in their capabilities [20][21]. Future Outlook - The industry may see a consolidation of successful players, with only a few companies likely to dominate the developer market [12][19]. - As the initial hype fades, the focus will likely shift towards improving product quality and user experience, particularly in enterprise settings where non-technical employees can leverage these tools effectively [21].