缺口约30万吨：AI基建狂潮引爆2025年铜供应危机

Core Insights - The construction boom of large-scale AI parks is driving unprecedented electricity demand, leading to a severe copper supply crisis. The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that current and planned mining capacities will only meet about 70% of global copper demand by 2035 [1] - Wood Mackenzie predicts an earlier supply shortage, estimating a refined copper market deficit of 304,000 tons by 2025, which will further expand in 2026, exacerbating the supply-demand tension due to the surge in AI-driven electrical infrastructure [3] - Technology giants constructing data centers are bidding higher for critical equipment like transformers than utility providers, putting immense pressure on public grid construction. Large AI parks are typically designed in modules of 50 to 150 megawatts, disrupting traditional grid supply chains [5] Industry Analysis - Industry estimates indicate that constructing one megawatt (MW) of data center capacity requires approximately 27 to 33 tons of copper. A standard 100 MW AI data center could consume thousands of tons of copper without considering the necessary upgrades to the upstream grid [7] - BHP's case study shows that an 80 MW deployment project consumes over 2,000 tons of copper, highlighting the explosive growth in demand while the supply side faces significant challenges. Many aging mines are nearing capacity exhaustion, and since 1991, ore grades have declined by about 40%, meaning more ore must be processed to extract the same amount of copper, significantly increasing costs and difficulties [7]