供应紧张叠加美联储降息预期升温 沪铜、国际铜主力合约日间盘创新高

Core Viewpoint - Domestic commodity futures showed mixed performance, with international copper and Shanghai copper futures reaching historical highs, driven by supply tightness and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of 15:00, the shipping index (European line) rose over 3%, while international copper, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai tin increased by over 2%. Other commodities like pulp, coke, and silicon iron rose by over 1%, and aluminum, crude oil, and manganese silicon saw slight increases [1] - On the downside, caustic soda, Shanghai silver, and glass fell by over 1%, while live pigs, white sugar, and eggs experienced slight declines [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Copper Prices - According to Xinyi Futures, the main driver for the rise in copper prices is the ongoing supply tightness, coupled with an increase in expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has weakened the dollar and provided strong support for base metals [1] - Wenkang Futures noted that while there are some geopolitical headwinds, market focus is shifting towards the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, with increased probabilities of rate cuts contributing to a positive market sentiment [1] - From an industrial perspective, the supply of copper raw materials remains tight, and expectations of reduced smelting output are driving strong copper price trends. Short-term supply is expected to see marginal increases, and with downstream operating rates providing support, copper prices are likely to maintain a strong upward trend [1]