多重因素共振 沪锡创三年半新高【12月4日SHFE市场收盘评论】

Core Viewpoint - Tin prices have surged significantly, reaching a peak of 323,700 yuan/ton, the highest since April 2022, before retracting slightly. The main contract closed up 2.23% at 316,230 yuan/ton, driven by supply-demand imbalances in the tin market and geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains [1]. Group 1: Supply Dynamics - The core logic supporting the rise in tin prices is the supply-demand imbalance, with the resumption of tin mining in Myanmar's Wa region lagging behind expectations and renewed supply disruptions from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) exacerbating the global tin shortage [1]. - Tin ingot exports from Indonesia have largely returned to normal, with over 6,500 tons exported in November [1]. - Ongoing conflicts in the eastern DRC have heightened concerns about supply chain stability and increased logistics risks [1]. Group 2: Demand Trends - In early November, there was a notable decline in downstream consumption, with photovoltaic demand remaining stable but production expectations for home appliances in December significantly lower than November [2]. - Downstream enterprises reported a marked decrease in order volumes and slower inventory turnover, with many companies adopting a cautious approach to high prices and refraining from large-scale stocking [2]. - Overall consumption this year has slightly decreased compared to previous years, contributing to a weak supply-demand scenario [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The recent unexpected drop in U.S. ADP data has led investors to believe that the Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates, causing the U.S. dollar index to fall below 99, which has positively impacted the overall non-ferrous metals market [2]. - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December is expected to shift focus back to policy expectations, influencing market dynamics [2]. - While tensions in the eastern DRC continue to raise supply concerns, the market has already priced in some of these risks, indicating that new catalysts will be needed to further drive prices upward [2].