植田和男“借力打力”搞定高市早苗，日央行12月加息几成定局，但之后呢？

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda Kazuo successfully advocated for a rate hike in December, signaling a shift in monetary policy despite previous opposition from Prime Minister Kishida Fumio, who had labeled rate hikes as "foolish" [1][2]. Group 1: Rate Hike Plans - The market anticipates a 25 basis point increase in interest rates to 0.75% later this month, with an 80% probability priced in following Ueda's comments [1][2]. - The upcoming rate hike would mark the highest level in 30 years, as Ueda aims to address the legacy of aggressive stimulus measures from his predecessor [2][4]. - Ueda's communication strategy is crucial for conveying the long-term path of interest rate increases, given the lack of consensus on Japan's neutral interest rate [1][6]. Group 2: Government Support - Finance Minister Kitagawa Satsuki expressed no objections to Ueda's statements, indicating that the government will not hinder the rate hike [2][3]. - Kishida's advisors have shown cautious agreement with the rate hike, suggesting that if the yen remains weak, the government may accept the December increase [2][3]. - The political landscape has shifted, with Ueda's discussions with Kishida leading to a more favorable environment for the rate hike [3][4]. Group 3: Market Reactions - The bond market remains tense as investors focus on Ueda's future rate hike signals, with concerns about the yen's depreciation influencing political support for the Bank of Japan's decisions [1][5]. - Analysts note that uncertainty regarding the extent of future rate hikes complicates long-term bond purchases, as the Bank of Japan's neutral rate is estimated to be between 1% and 2.5% [6]